UPDATED: 2/12/23, 6:10 PM (FINAL)

This is our look into the betting market for Super Bowl LVII between the Eagles and Chiefs. Let's see where the sharps, public, and books are, and what we can learn from that in deciding where to bet. 

Time: 6:30 PM ET

Network: FOX

Opening Line: Chiefs -2

Current Line: Eagles -1.5

Opening Total: 51

Current Total: 51

Quick Links

LINE MOVEMENT

Side: The line opened at Chiefs -2, but within 15 minutes moved to Eagles -2.5 on sharp action. However, in the almost two weeks since, it has slowly come down to Eagles -1.5.

Total: The total moved down almost immediately to 49 within a few minutes. However, it then moved up to 51 on sharp action and has remained right around there ever since. 

SHARPS

Side: Sharps are mixed on the side. Though there was that initial sharp action on the Eagles, they've been mixed at current lines, but more on the Chiefs, as limits have increased. 

Total: We have seen sharp action on the Over. Currently, it is a LOW. 

PUBLIC

Side: Depending on the book, we are seeing between 60-70% of action on the Eagles, meaning public is on the Eagles. 

Total: Depending on the book, we are seeing between 55-65% of action on the Over, meaning public is on the Over. 

VEGAS NEEDS

Side: With how heavy the action is, and with how heavy the moneyline and futures action is, the Chief are a MEDIUM Need on the Moneyline and Spread.    

Total: With the public being slightly on the Over, the Under will be a LOW Need.   

GAME SUMMARY

Side: The sharps are mixed and public is on the Eagles, meaning the public fade is on the Chiefs. The Vegas Need is the Chiefs.

Total: The sharps are on the Over, as are the public, meaning the public fade is the Under. The Vegas Need is the Under. 

BETTR BETS

Side: With Vegas Needing the Chiefs, we recommend the CHIEFS +1.5. The books will also need the CHIEFS ML.  

Total: The sharps are on the Over, but the public fade is to the Under, and Vegas Needs is the Under. We recommend LAYING OFF PREGAME, and taking it live (see below). 

LIVE BETTING

The live pars on each side are Chiefs +14.5, and Eagles +17.5. On the total, it will be Over 34.5, and Under 70.5. 

Moreso than in other years, the live betting liability will be massive, and something the books will be keeping an eye on. As long as they can kill most of the live numbers (i.e, if the game comes in under most of the live Overs), then they'll be fine, even if the pregame Over hits. 

You might see also might see few things. #1, an over exaggeration of the early narrative. So, for example, let's say the Eagles get off to a hot start, like a quick 14-0 or 14-3 lead. You'll see a lot of live bets come in on them. If the Chiefs get off to a hot start, then the there might be some chasing on the Eagles. I would also think that the public will double down on the public side. For example, let's say the Over ends up being the public side, you'll see a bunch of live bets on the Over, regardless. If they get off to a hot start, then the public will keep hammering the Over. If they get off to a slow start, they'll think they'll get a good # and hammer the Over. So, as long as the books can kill most of the live public numbers, they'll be fine. And, if they can kill those 2H numbers as well.

Periodically throughout the game, will be sending alerts regarding the live betting situation. 

PROP BETS

TD Markets

Sharps are on Pacheco for anytime TD. The public is on Kelce for both first and anytime TD, which are both liabilities.

MVP Market

Sharps are on: Mahomes and Hurts, while the public is on: Mahomes, Reddick, Hurts, T. Kelce, but Gainwell, Reddick, Sanders, J. Kelce, and Pacheco, and T. Kelce are all liabilities. Reddick is the biggest liability. Both Hurts and Mahomes are good outcomes. 

Do remember the quarterbacks win 65% of the time, so, maybe to go along with your ML bet, you could bet on a Hurts MVP or a Mahomes MVP if you're on the Eagles or Chiefs respectively.

Coin Toss

Some books are wanting heads, and others tails. It's fairly mixed overall (of course). 

I've said to not bet the Coin Toss, but if you must, here's what FFT has to say...

FFT would have small leans to Heads. The coin toss is actually relatively streaky. It'll go 4 heads in a row, and then 4 tails in a row.  3 of the last 5 have been heads, and heads is down 29-27, and so you'd expect a regression. Also, the last 8 coin toss winners have lost. The public is on the "Yes" for either team to win the coin toss and the game, so the books would be wanting the coin toss winner to lose again. 

Gatorade Bath

The public and sharps are on Yellow/Green after Lane Johnson said the Eagles have been drinking that all season. That is the biggest liability, followed by Blue.

Miscellaneous

Public is on the Over for "the Jersey Number of 1st (and Last) TD scorer" and a Coaches Challenge to be Successful.

A correct score of Eagles 37-34 is a liability because of the fake script making the rounds. 

PSYCHOLOGY ANGLE

The public wants a high scoring, fun game. That is reflected in betting the overs in most props and in the game itself. Remember how "boring" the Patriots-Rams game was a few years ago? The books (and sharps) want a low-scoring, boring game. Remember how "boring" the Patriots-Rams game was a few years ago? The public hated that. The books and sharps loved that. That's why No and Under rules the day. 

CLOSING THOUGHTS

The Super Bowl is obviously a big game, with a lot of $$ and forces at play. The books will be rooting for the Chiefs (both spread and moneyline), and the Under. They'll be rooting for NO's and Under on the prop market.

Overall, remember it's just one game, and don't put too much money into it. Super Bowls are typically my LEAST bet games. But have fun! It'll be a fun game. 

Check back up until kickoff for any last minute sharp plays, big bets, or other factors that might change the BETTR BET. The Betting Market Analysis is just one angle to look at and is meant to be information for you in determining your bets. Do confirm your bets with other information, statistics, and models. Sometimes, we don't take the BETTR BET based on that other information.